Cyclone Nisarga is likely to cause a landfall near Alibag; few parts of Mumbai are assumed to be swamped
The storm upsurge is anticipated to be at least 1-2 metres higher than astronomical tide which is highly possible to flood the low lying regions of Mumbai, Thane and Raigad districts, also set storm surge is said to be 0.5-1 metre high above the astronomical tide which is likely to swamp the low lying regions of Ratnagiri district during landfall.
Deep depression over the east-central Arabian Sea is possibly to aggravate into the cyclonic storm Nisarga, which will cause a landfall near to Alibag, located 94 km south of Mumbai, on 3rd June afternoon.
Nisarga is anticipated to experience a wind speed of 100 kmph to 110 kmph, with gusts of up to 120 kmph.
Sunita Devi, in-charge of cyclones at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated, “The landfall location will be very close to Alibag but extensive damage can be expected in Mumbai also,”
This deep depression is presently positioned at 710 km south-southwest of Surat (Gujarat), 280 km west-southwest of Panjim (Goa) and 490 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra).
The cyclone is expected to navigate over north Maharashtra and neighbouring south Gujarat coast in between Harihareshwar (Maharashtra) and Daman on the 3rd June noon. This storm surge is foreseen to be one to two metres beyond the astronomical tide and is very likely to swamp low-lying regions of Mumbai, Thane and Raigad districts. It is even intended to be about 0.5 to one metre higher than the astronomical tide and is expected to flood the low-lying regions of Ratnagiri district.
Extremely heavy (more than 20 cm) rains are foreseen in parts of Palghar, Mumbai, Sindhudurg, Thane and Raigad.
Mathew Roxy Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology tweeted, “Cyclone Nisarga is about to scrape around Mumbai on 3rd June. If that happens, it will be the first-ever cyclone in recorded history to hit the Maharashtra coast in June. Will it bring in floods too?…IMD has forecast a moderate cyclone strengthening up to 100 kmph. It’s not just the direct impact of the winds that we need to worry (about). Forecasts indicate heavy rains up to 200 mm, and INCOIS has forecast storm surges with waves of 3–6 meters as Nisarga approaches landfall,”
He even added, “If this happens over Mumbai during the high tide time on 3rd June morning—the rains and storm surge and the tide can work together to flood a city that is already clogged. All these events overlap as a ‘compound event’ on a rising sea level in the background.”